THE headlines have said it all for some considerable time…

In short, they’ve been bleak - from talk of imminent recession and staff shortages to higher interest rates and industrial disputes.

There’s apparently been plenty of reasons for worry and alarm.

But my personal and professional view differs – and I’d like to briefly keep you updated.

As many of you will be aware, I’ve long regarded the movement of container ships both domestically and internationally as a key indicator of wider economic prosperity.

Put simply, when the movement of these behemoth vessels is scant, the greater there is to be worried about.

And since the start of 2023, there’s been substantial movement both domestically and internationally.

Indeed, I’ve observed a great amount of vessels waiting to dock at the terminals off the Pembrokeshire coast, in Wales, over the past few weeks.

And if my suspicions prove correct, many – if not all – of these container ships are ferrying LPG to our shores which obviously has implications for the ongoing security of our country’s energy supply.

The UK and Europe have quickly become independent of Russian energy over the past year and the issue of a possibly collapsing supply of raw materials in Europe has also largely been solved.

For clarity, we’re not out of the proverbial water yet.

A Russian spring offensive could quickly change the current situation.

And then – at some point in the future - there's the looming prospect of the middle to long-term impact of war premiums on the investment market to consider.

But I’m not alone in my growing optimism at this point in time.

According to the S&P Global CIPS Flash UK composite purchasing managers’ index, many businesses are also cautiously optimistic about the future.

The index shows that despite seeing the sharpest drop in business activity for two years, companies are expecting the situation to improve throughout the coming year.

There are several cited reasons for their tentative optimism.

For example, inflows of new business fell for the sixth consecutive month in January 2023… but the decline was minimal, and the smallest seen for five months.

Many business leaders I’m speaking to feel that economic management of the country has improved in recent months, following the turbulence of Liz Truss’s premiership and the chaos triggered by her Mini Budget last autumn.

Inflation fell from 10.5% in December 2022 to 10.1% in January 2023.

This is raising hopes that inflation may have peaked and is now gradually returning to more manageable levels.

It must be stressed that inflation remains well above the Bank of England’s target of two per cent, which means the costs and charges faced by businesses are still going up at an uncomfortably high rate.

Nevertheless, this could signal a chink of light in the wider economic situation, particularly as the S&P Global/CIPS data has been reinforced by the latest Lloyds Bank Business Barometer.

This shows that in January 2023, business confidence rose by five points to 22 per cent.

This is the second month in succession that confidence has improved, and means it is now at a six-month high.

Economic optimism, meanwhile, went up by four points to 47 per cent, with falling inflation again being cited as a factor.

To conclude, we wait to see what the rest of 2023 brings.

Both the government and the Bank of England clearly still have tough jobs on their hands.

Businesses are still operating in a tough environment with higher energy bills, in particular, remaining a concern.

Indeed, with the cost of energy expected to take centre stage when prices rise again next month, Sunak and Hunt would do well to consider implementing an appropriate windfall tax on the large energy companies at the earliest opportunity.

But let’s ensure that 2023 does not prove to be the year when ‘UK plc’ talks down its economic strength and success.

Rest assured that my team and I at Future Life Wealth Management will be keeping you briefed about any developments that arise.

And please don’t ever hesitate to get in touch with us HERE if you have any queries or we can be of assistance.