The morning after the night before

Date Published: 13/12/2019 15:03

While some issues were decided last night, huge uncertainties remain.

This Election feels telling; that’s how politicians win votes – by insisting that this is the Election that really matters. In truth, Brexit-related economic indecision is set to continue, just in a different pretext.

Investors are faced with a dilemma. Instead of an anti-business Labour-led government with one pro-business policy, we have a business-friendly Conservative government with one big anti-business policy. The pound jumped against the US Dollar around 2% overnight suggesting markets view the election as positive for the UK economy, but with it at $1.34 they still think resolution is far away.

However, it is easy to overthink UK politics as your investment portfolios will be globally diversified multi-asset portfolios. It could be argued that diversified investments are not especially vulnerable to UK politics.

Global equities don’t care about the UK!

Other growth assets don’t care about the UK!

We have a Conservative government with some business-friendly policies and one big anti-business policy – Brexit. Most likely, the UK will enter into a transition period once Parliament passes the withdrawal agreement next week. This will last until the end of 2020.

Business now has clarity that the UK will leave the EU by the end of January and gives corporate leaders the ability to make decisions and deploy the cash retained because of political indecision, if and when appropriate. But this is just the start - which of the 50 shades of Brexit we will end up with?

The promissory notes given to the region to support the local economy need to be followed through and must lead to rapid distribution of investment for regional transport/infrastructure projects and support of the local economy. Hiding in fridges is not an option, it is time to deliver!

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